FUTURE MEDIA GROUP
SCENARIO ANALYSIS – THE MEDIA INDUSTRY IN 2030
Predicting the future is an important part of FMG’s innovation work. One of the methods we use is scenario analysis.
A scenario is an enhanced image of what the future might look like and it is used to spark ideas around new innovation projects and experiments. To create a scenario, you look at current and emerging trends and push them to their extremes.
The benefit of doing a scenario analysis is that your company will be prepared for multiple possible outcomes and already have an idea about the actions to take. This allows your company to be agile and prepared.
In the beginning of 2020 FMG created a scenario analysis that we shared within the company – where we analysed the possible future of the media industry through five extreme scenarios. On this page we will share these scenarios and exercises with you – along with tools for idea collaboration.
The scenarios are based around five different scales:
- Journalists no longer exist vs. Journalism is AI/tech-driven
- Everything is media vs. Traditional media
- A fragmented market vs. One company owns everything
- No one trusts anything vs. Safety and high trust
- Consumer power vs. Distributor power
Let’s dig in.
SCENARIO 1
MAD MAX
Everything is media, AR is part of our everyday life and no one trusts anybody with their data.
Total privacy is a nice idea, but to what price? In this scenario our personal data is deleted from the internet and we are completely anonymous online.
SCENARIO 2
1984
One company owns all the data and there are no journalists. What if your phone knew everything about you and your friends, and could give you the best recommendations on where to go and what to purchase?
SCENARIO 3
BIG BROTHER
Tech-driven journalism and reliable solutions. No more fake news, no more crime, no more unwanted behaviour. In this scenario we are “safe”, but we are monitored 24/7 and rewarded for truth-ranking news.
SCENARIO 4
CITIZEN JOURNALISM
There are no journalists and everything is media. AR is big, and you get your news from your chosen trusted sources, may it be influencers, scientists or celebrities. AR-ads are common.
SCENARIO 5
THE END OF AGENCIES
A fragmented market and complete customer control Consumers have the control. Your phone is your personal assistant, and it helps you make the best decisions based on how consumers have ranked products and companies. CSR is important and it is common for companies to give a “share to charity”
